Splitting the Vote

There's a lot of discussion among Tea Partiers over whether we should be trying to take back the Republican Party from within by running conservative candidates aas Republicans or forming a new third party to compete with the GOP.

I am, and unless things get a whole lot worse will continue to be, firmly in the camp of taking over the Republican party from within, because election history has shown that conservative third party candidates almost always succeed only in splitting a small percentage of votes from the Republican candidate, often giving the Democrat a victory with less that 50% of the vote.

Arizona 2012 is a perfect example of this effect. In two of the state's nine Congressional districts (districts 1 and 9), a formerly Republican district turned Democrat (including the fanatic communist Kyrstin Sinema) because a Libertarian candidate won about 6% of the vote that would otherwise almost certainly have gone to the Republican candidate. Arizona, which before had 3 Democrat districts to 6 Republican, now shamefully slides to having 5 Democrat districts to only 4 Republican.

Here http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2012/11/arizona-libertari... the "Independent Political Report" proudly touts the impact of Libertarian candidates on the elections in Arizona. Proud? Of handing a strongly conservative state a Democrat majority in the House of Representatives? In what twisted way is that a victory for conservatives?

I don't know how many other districts suffered similar results across the country, but this to me shows that you can't simply plough through human psychology with sincerity, truth, facts, or knowledge. Things have to get a whole awful lot worse before the masses are ready to abandon the comfort of the GOP in the 90% proportions necessary for a third party to win elections. That is going to be a massive emotional reaction--not a rational one.
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