There’s been a seismic shakeup this week, knocking Jeb Bush from the top spot for the first time since the race began and putting Sen. Ted Cruz at the top.
The latest WSJ/NBC News poll has Donald Trump and Ben Carson tied for the lead with Sen. Marco Rubio and Carly Fiorina tied for third place. But few would imagine that those rankings will be predictive. Bush and Cruz in are farther behind, but the Fox News First Power Index is about more than just the latest polls. It’s about who has the best path to their party’s nomination.
What put Bush at the top of the list from the start was that his superior organization, enormous cash reserves and united support from the GOP establishment would allow him to do what the last two GOP nominees did and outlast and outspend insurgent rivals in the springtime.
But now it’s clear that Bush has some serious problems and seriously doesn’t seem to know how to fix them.
In an interview on “Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace” Bush acknowledged his struggles saying, “Candidates have to get better, and that’s what I intend to do.” But, as he has done before, Bush said that his deep financial resources would keep him in the race and help deliver a victory.
But if Bush is at the point of reassuring jittery donors that he can make it for the long haul at the very moment that his former protégé Rubio is having his second moment in the sun, it’s not a good thing. While Ohio Gov. John Kasich can rustle some Bush money on Wall Street and K Street and poses a serious threat for a New Hampshire win, it is Rubio who could actually knock Bush out nationally.
The Bushies call Rubio “Judas,” so at least they get how big a threat he is.
Fox News First still believes that the race will still come down to two candidates by March 15 or immediately afterward. Maybe it will be a five-way brawl all the way to the convention, but we’ve heard that before.
And as of today, the best bet for the insurgent side, Cruz, looks like a stronger choice than the establishment favorite, Bush.
Money matters for Cruz, too. The super-duper PACs backing Cruz guarantee he will be in the game well into March, but his campaign is also raising well online.
Although Cruz trails Bush in the RCP average, but as we often discuss, at this point, we care as much (or more) about voters’ net favorable views of candidates as we do actual ballot preferences. And in that measure, Bush is a disaster.
Among all voters in the latest Fox News poll, Bush turns in a net favorable score of negative 21 points. That’s nearly as bad as Donald Trump who sits at -25 points and worse than Hilly Clinton, who registered at -18 points.
With Republican voters Cruz isn’t the top of the class, but shows his strength with +21 points. It’s better than Trump’s +12 and soars over Bush’s meager +1 point.
Ben Carson has the highest favorability at +52 points, far and away the most popular guy in the field. Other top spots for favorability go to Rubio (+35 points) and Carly Fiorina (+30 points).
But here we go back to fundamentals. Can these candidates, particularly Carson, endure as top-tier contenders? Are they gifted enough politicians and do they have the operational wherewithal and fundraising depth to fight in what will be the fastest-moving GOP primary cycle in memory.
When you have a candidate that has both favorability and money though, that’s when you have a viable challenger.
Cruz, as we discussed earlier, has the money but he also his self-described“grassroots army,” including a stable niche among evangelical groups. He took the top spot in the straw poll at this weekend’s Value Voters Summit in Washington for the third year in a row.
Now, all that sounds good at the end September, but will it sound so good at the end of the year?
The stakes are higher for Cruz in the coming congressional showdowns over spending, abortion and leadership, then any other candidate. If Cruz finds a way of keeping the faith of his core supporters, but not acting like a “false prophet” then it could be the start of something big.
But if the 2013 Cruz-centric showdown and shutdown is the model for what’s coming, Cruz won’t hold the top spot for very long. -Fox News
{freedomsback.com} ~ Meanwhile, on the Democrats’ side: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . http://freedomsback.com/charles-krauthammer/double-suicide-the-presidential-campaign-of-2015/ |
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