Yale Study Finds Twice As Many Illegal Aliens In US Than Previous Estimates

The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States has been seriously underestimated for decades, according to the results of a groundbreaking new Yale paper that suggest there are more than twice as many illegal aliens residing in the U.S. than we have been led to believe. 

 For decades, generally accepted estimates used by policymakers and referenced by the media have put the population of undocumented immigrants in the United States at approximately 11.3 million. But the new Yale study, using cutting edge mathematical modeling techniques on the latest data, suggests that the actual number of illegal aliens is more than double.

There are more than twice as many illegal aliens in the U.S. than previously estimated, according to the results of a new Yale study.

 The results, published in PLOS ONE, surprised the Yale researchers themselves. Admitting they expected the real number to be well below 11.3 million, the researchers began the project with the expectation that at completion they would be able to break the news that there are far less illegal aliens in the U.S. than people think.

But they couldn’t have been more wrong.

Our original idea was just to do a sanity check on the existing number,” says Edward Kaplan, the William N. and Marie A. Beach Professor of Operations Research at the Yale School of Management. “Instead of a number which was smaller, we got a number that was 50% higher. That caused us to scratch our heads.

 Jonathan Feinstein, the John G. Searle Professor of Economics and Management at Yale SOM, adds, “There’s a number that everybody quotes, but when you actually dig down and say, ‘What is it based on?’ You find it’s based on one very specific survey and possibly an approach that has some difficulties. So we went in and just took a very different approach.”

 Yale Insights reports: The 11.3 million number is extrapolated from the Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey.


It’s been the only method used for the last three decades,” says Mohammad Fazel‐Zarandi, a senior lecturer at the MIT Sloan School of Management and formerly a postdoctoral associate and lecturer in operations at the Yale School of Management. That made the researchers curious—could they reproduce the number using a different methodology?

 The approach in the new research was based on operational data, such as deportations and visa overstays, and demographic data, including death rates and immigration rates. “We combined these data using a demographic model that follows a very simple logic,” Kaplan says. “The population today is equal to the initial population plus everyone who came in minus everyone who went out. It’s that simple.”

 While the logic is simple—tally the inflows and outflows over time—actually gathering, assessing, and inserting the data appropriately into a mathematical model isn’t at all simple. Because there is significant uncertainty, the results are presented as a range. After running 1,000,000 simulations of the model, the researchers’ 95% probability range is 16 million to 29 million, with 22.1 million as the mean.

 Notably, the upper bound of the traditional survey approach, which also produces a range, doesn’t overlap with the lower bound of the new modeling method. “There really is some open water between these estimates,” Kaplan says. He believes that means the differences between the approaches can’t be explained by sampling variability or annual fluctuations.

 There are key areas of agreement between this paper and the existing survey numbers. Both methods found that the greatest growth of the undocumented population happened in the 1990s and early 2000s. Both found that the population size has been relatively stable since 2008.

The trajectory is the same. We see the same patterns happening, but they’re just understating the actual number of people who have made it here,” says Fazel‐Zarandi. In his view, that suggests the survey method doesn’t effectively reach a group with incentives to stay undetected. “They are capturing part of this population, but not the whole population.”


 While the findings are startling, they aren’t describing a new situation. “We wouldn’t want people to walk away from this research thinking that suddenly there’s a large influx happening now,” says Feinstein. “It’s really something that happened in the past and maybe was not properly counted or documented.”

Kaplan adds, “What we’re saying is the number has been higher all along.”

 While immigration is a hot button topic, the researchers are adamant that their aim is to provide information. “Of course, our findings will get pulled and tugged in many ways, but our purpose is just to provide better information,” Feinstein says.

This paper is not oriented towards politics or policy. I want to be very clear: this paper is about coming up with a better estimate of an important number.


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 Bump it back on the front page here, the news was missed.

Sen. Feistine evidently thinks its ok to rob the piggy bank as long as it happened yesterday...  That government has no duty to its Citizens for neglecting its Immigration law and policy. 

Instead, Feinstine is of the opinion that MS 13 types, and a horde of uneducated, low skilled worker Bees, are just what the doctor ordered, as a tonic to expand the American Economy... She chooses to ignore the crime, disease, and low skilled, indigent labor, such neglect of the Law... has spawned.

Good morning Mr. Nelson,

When was the last time you took a peek at the true numbers for the American Economy, and somehow they left out Illegals.

Just a belated thanks to Tif for posting this fine article... 

 Just sharing info needed to be seen here, when a lie is found, it needs shared again.





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States Propose Orwellian Law Mandating State Home Invasion On Home-School Families

(TeaParty.org) – Lawmakers in some US states have proposed legislation that would require home visits for families with homeschooled children, posing a terrifying threat to parental authority and freedom in general.

Iowa HF 272 requires homeschool families who do not report to their school district in conducting their home education to submit to “health and safety visits” quarterly by “the board of directors of a school district.”

If parents decline, the proposed law says, “the juvenile court or district court upon a showing of probable cause may authorize the person making the home visit to enter the home and interview or observe the child.”

The law doesn’t explain why a school district would conduct “health and safety visits,” nor is “probable cause” defined.

But the party performing the visit on behalf of the school district would be a mandatory reporter, and the district can collaborate on the mandated home visits with the Department of Human Services, which in turn can collaborate with the state’s Department of Education.

A similar bill calling for a home investigation of homeschool families was recently introduced in Illinois. The visits there would be performed by the Child Protective Service Unit of the Department of Children and Family Services.

Iowa state Rep. Mary Mascher, a Democrat, introduced the bill, which is one of two introduced thus far during this legislative session requiring home visits for homeschool families.

Public schools do not exist to determine the “health and safety” of a child, they exist to provide children with an education.

In fact, plenty of public schools pose serious risks to the “health and safety” of children, whether that be increased risk to seasonal and contagious illness or the incidents of violent crime that plague the nation’s inner city schools.

This law is eerily reminiscent of the socialist systems many lawmakers in Washington would like to mimic here at home. There is nothing more authoritative than the state forcing their way into the home.

Homeschooling is a way a rapidly growing number of parents have found to combat the state-sponsored ideological indoctrination taking place in the public school system, and these authoritarians can’t stand that parents are finding a way to fight back and take their children’s educations, and minds.

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