Polling avalanche: GOP leads in eight races for Democrat-held Senate seats

Jim Geragthy, acclaimed author and National Review’s chief campaign analyst, has been grousing about the lack of quality polling in key Senate races this year. His frustration is well-founded.  So yesterday must have felt like Christmas in September for Jim and political junkies everywhere, as two pollsters released a deluge of surveys covering the most contested races in the country.  In light of the results, I’d expect that national Republicans are kicking off the week with an extra spring in their step, as well.  We were leaked an advance copy of last week’s much-anticipated Politico/GWU Battleground poll, which was packed with more than a few hopeful morsels for conservatives. This weekend’s polling volley applies those national trends to roughly a dozen contests across the 2014 Senate landscape — the contours of which Ioutlined here.  An overview of the fresh data:

Alaska: Accurately polling this state is infamously difficult, but the new New York Times/CBS News/YouGov poll shows a stark reversal in the race, with Republican Dan Sullivan now leading incumbent Sen. Mark Begich by six points — 45 to 39, including leaners.  The Begich campaign is still reeling from a furious backlash over their desperate TV ad that falsely tied Sullivan to a terrible case involving child rape and a double murder.  The family of the victims demanded that Begich pull the ad, with Sullivan slamming the spot for being factually inaccurate.  Begich has voted with President Obama 97 percent of the time, according to a Congressional Quarterly analysis.

Arkansas: Three new polls out of this race, one of which Jazz covered yesterday.  NBC/Marist finds Republican challenger Tom Cotton leading Sen. Mark Pryor by five points, 45-40, among likely voters.  NYT/CBS/YouGov shows Cotton up four (with leaners), 43-39.  CNN puts Cottonahead by two, though he trails Pryor among the broader electorate of registered voters in the survey.  Pryor raised eyebrows by airing an ad touting Obamacare, though the spot failed to mention the law by name.  The president and his signature law are deeply unpopular in the state. Pryor supports Obama 90 percent of the time.

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WAIT TILL THE LEFT START CHEATING !

This is why the democraps do not want voter ID. So they can cheat...

We can only hope!  I hope the Republicans wise up to the cheating Democrats and have some way to counter balance. Each state should carefully check their voters against who is voting in each race.

Kathae,

Ironic you should make that suggestion.  Just so happens I am a member of TruetheVote (here in Houston)....and sent email Saturday to Catherine Engelbrecht (Founder) with some questions and suggestions re: voter fraud; and I received a reply yesterday, they are looking into the possibilities of what I suggested.

Sadly, more then likely that wont happen b/c everytime we find them cheating and try to fix it, some Liberal azz suckazz Judge rules against it. For some reason our law does not want truth and facts, it wants Judges on the take.

I know diehard democrats who are very sorry they voted democrat in 2008,  voted against Obama in 2012 and say they are going to vote republican in 2014.  so many demo are abandoning ship  thank God

Glad to see they smartened up, but why didnt they see the writing on the wall in 2012, b/c the writing was there in HUGE letters.

If the RNC got on the ball we could knock Durbin out in Illinois. Now is the best time with his amnesty drive.

 

Did you not see a pic with him at a commie rally?

Not only amnesty, but we got him with the scandal about the IRS.   

You sound like you come from IL.   If you do, please look into Paul Schimpf,

for AG.   He is a retired Marine, I have talked to him personally, and we need

to replace Lisa Madigan.   Get rid of the Madigan machine.   Paul is the real deal.

Durbin, hopefully with alot of poll watchers and judges will take him out.

Oberweiss  has a real chance.   Lets push it.

Yeah, the ONLY thing I'll say to that is 2012. Dont get all happy and giddy until it happens b/c the polls showed Romney kicking Oblameos azz too. Do NOT slow down, make sure you Vote, get these lousy azz Liberals out of office. I am sickof them screwing up all of our lives. Liberals DO NOT make the world better for all, they ONLY make it a little better for a few and the few are normally the elite and funny thats what the blame on repubs.

In reading the info provided in the Hot Air link.....I cannot see the "Avalanche".....most of the R leads mentioned are only 1-4 pts; and what part of the likely-voter populace did they poll? When/If the polls change to a 12-15 pt R lead.....then, I might get 'cautiously' excited. Until then, I'm just gonna keep praying.

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BREAKING: Hillary Admits She Was Wrong About ‘Deplorables,’
White Nationalists Only ‘0.15%’ Of U.S. Population

(TeaParty.org) – Hillary Clinton, the failed liberal presidential candidate who sealed her fate by slamming half of U.S. voters as a load of racist, sexist, xenophobic “deplorables,” just came out and admitted she was wrong, Breitbart reports.

Speaking with Hugh Hewitt on his radio show about her book “What Happened,” he asked her if she actually believes that half of the American population are white nationalists and racists.

“Of the 62.9 million people who voted for President Trump, do you have a number in your mind that you think are actually white nationalist racists of that 62.9 million, a real number?” he asked.

“No, I don’t,” she said.

Still have any doubts? Later in the conversation, Hewitt asked the same question again. “Do you think there are more than a half million, you know, honest-to-God white nationalists running around the United States?”

Clinton: “Probably not, no.”

A white nationalist would like to establish a sovereign country for people of white European heritage, an idea everyone across the political spectrum finds unspeakably intolerable and offensive. Now, the woman who declared that this was the desire of more than half of Americans is saying that virtually nobody wants it. On both counts, she’s completely wrong.

There’s no doubt that Clinton is probably going to try running again for president in 2020 – if she’s even alive that long – and might be trying to absolve her guilt and pander to all those “undecideds” who instantly went MAGA the second she blasted them as no-good racist deplorables for not voting Democrat.

However, Clinton did later admit that there were more white nationalists in America than she had thought. Expressing her worries that the internet and the presidency of Trump is giving them a voice and a platform, she hinted that under her iron scepter, she will attempt to silence them.

“Unfortunately, their views, which used to be quite beyond the mainstream, you know, have a much broader audience now, because you know, of being online and having outlets and media presence that can promote those attitudes,” she said.

How many white nationalists are there in the United States? That’s a question with troublingly few answers, since for some mysterious reason the liberal mainstream media – even though it claims all the time that white supremacy is on the rise – hasn’t actually bothered to take polls and just ask people whether they are white nationalists.

Actually, there’s a simple answer to that. If such a poll were to be taken, our bet is that liberals would be very disappointed to discover that almost nobody is actually a white nationalist, and so there would be no way they could continue scaring people with those fears. A tactic Clinton has apparently given up on.

Left-wingers are entirely convinced that some vague but large majority of people who say they aren’t racists or white nationalists, actually share a lot of views with them – which is why Nazi and white supremacist have become interchangeable with Republican and libertarian.

An article by Newsweek, which polled around 5,000 in order address this very question, came up with this response:

About 70 percent of respondents strongly agreed that people of different races should be “free to live wherever they choose” and that “all races are equal,” and 89 percent agreed that all races should be treated equally. At the same time, 31 percent of respondents said they strongly or somewhat agreed that the country needs to “protect and preserve its White European heritage,” while 34 percent strongly or somewhat disagreed and 29 percent said they neither agreed nor disagreed.

Reality is, it’s a little true that some Americans do have overlapping views with white nationalists, but the overwhelming majority of respondents STRONGLY believe that the races should be free, are equal, and should be treated equally. Sounds like none of these respondents would be joining a lynch mob or waging a second Holocaust any time soon – trying to equate the preservation of white heritage with support for slavery and genocide is obviously one of the Left’s biggest lies, and the very reason why 39 percent of people in this same survey believe white people are under attack.

So Clinton changes her mind, and now says she believes less than one percent of the American population are white nationalists – did she believe there were even LESS than that during the campaign trail? Either way, she’s either just lying or plain stupid.

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