Remember when Democrats predicted the imminent decline of the GOP?
The theory was that Republicans were so out of touch with women and ethnic minorities that they would soon be relegated to the status of a “permanent minority” — supported only by Southern white men and incapable of recapturing the White House.
Donald Trump’s victory has put an end to this fantasy. Now it’s the Democrats who are facing their own “doomsday” scenario.
A recent analysis conducted by Third Way — a self-described “centrist” think tank — argues that Democrats are evolving into a “coastal” party. They have strong bases in California, New York and Massachusetts but are slowly ceding the rest of the country to Republicans.
Third Way compared 2016 election results in the two areas and found an astounding asymmetry:
In California, New York and Massachusetts, home to roughly 24 million voters, voters chose Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by a large margin, 65% to 35%.
But in the remaining 47 states, home to 105 million voters, voters broke for Trump by a decisive 52% to 48% margin.
The geographic concentration of the pro-Hillary vote is one reason Clinton’s supposed popular vote “victory” rings so hollow. Clinton ran up the score in a liberal state like California, where she bested Trump by some 4.3 million votes.
But that single-state advantage is simply not reflective of the broader national pattern, which favored Trump, Third Way found.
Recent voting patterns in Congress point to another disastrous trend for Democrats: They are fast becoming a “two-region” party.