Illegal Alien Invasion (1,780)

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Updated Trump administration ends DACA, with 6-month delay 09/27/2018

The Trump administration on Tuesday announced the “orderly wind down” of the Obama-era program that gave a deportation reprieve to illegal…

Started by KatLatest Reply

Check out the fiery Calif. town hall that SHATTERS the MSM’s immigration, anti-Trump mantra to smithereens

The small town of Cudahy, near Los Angeles, got a big surprise at a recent town hall meeting. Officials were hammered by supporters of Pres…

Started by Melony B. DeFordLatest Reply

The Truth About Sanctuary Cities and Crime Rates

If restricting local law enforcement from cooperating with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detainer requests is supposed to make…

Started by Melony B. DeFordLatest Reply

Discussions Replies Latest Activity

Dad Arrested For Punching Migrant Who Sexually Assaulted His Daughter

 Police in Munich, Germany have filed bodily injury charges against a 42-year-old father after he punched an African migrant who sexually a…

Started by Mrs.Tif Morgan

1 7 hours ago
Reply by Hank Jordan

Illegal Alien Sets Hospital On Fire In Sanctuary City

 An illegal alien has been arrested after setting fire to a hospital in Maryland, endangering the lives of hundreds of patients.  According…

Started by Mrs.Tif Morgan

3 on Friday
Reply by Mrs.Tif Morgan

Mad Max Fury Road: by The Mexican Cartel

 Infowars is back at youtube by hundreds of supporters. The Mexican Cartel have built Mad Max Cars and Trucks some spotted close to the Ame…

Started by Hank Jordan

0 Oct 7

Camouflaged Armed Illegal Mexicans Crossing At The Chilton Ranch In Southern Arizona

 Published on Sep 10, 2018- At the Chilton Ranch in Arizona, thousands of armed illegals march into the United States uninterrupted because…

Started by Hank Jordan

2 Oct 7
Reply by Hank Jordan

Yale Study Finds Twice As Many Illegal Aliens In US Than Previous Estimates

The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States has been seriously underestimated for decades, according to the results of a gro…

Started by Mrs.Tif Morgan

6 Sep 30
Reply by Mrs.Tif Morgan

Images Of Illegals That The American Politicians Don't Want Seen- 2018

 Several States when illegal border crossing is taking place, the Trump Walls and extra security is in place, Now, for the Images Of Illega…

Started by Hank Jordan

3 Sep 30
Reply by Mrs.Tif Morgan

ICE Arrests 150 Criminal Illegal Aliens Who Were Offered Sanctuary In California

 Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials arrested 150 criminal illegal aliens who were offered protection in Los Angeles, Calif…

Started by Mrs.Tif Morgan

1 Sep 29
Reply by Hank Jordan

Updated Trump administration ends DACA, with 6-month delay 09/27/2018

The Trump administration on Tuesday announced the “orderly wind down” of the Obama-era program that gave a deportation reprieve to illegal…

Started by Kat

672 Sep 27
Reply by Ronald A. Nelson Col.USA (Ret)

39 Million Cases of Identity Theft By Illegal Aliens In Obama’s Final Term

 The scale of illegal immigration to the United States could be much higher than previously thought. According to agency records obtained b…

Started by Hank Jordan

2 Sep 12
Reply by Hank Jordan

Deported Illegal Alien From Mexico Stabs Woman To Death In Minnesota

 An illegal alien from Mexico who was previously deported returned to the United States and stabbed his ex-girlfriend to death, according t…

Started by Hank Jordan

0 Aug 26

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Political Cartoons by AF Branco

Political Cartoons by Tom Stiglich

ALERT ALERT

 Will  Tea Party Hand The Liberals Their Ass On Election Day? 

It was this week two years ago that Hillary Clinton’s victory looked assured, when the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape of Donald Trump bragging about sexual assault appeared all but certain to end his campaign.

Jesse Ferguson remembers it well. The deputy press secretary for Clinton’s campaign also remembers what happened a month later.

It’s why this veteran Democratic operative can’t shake the feeling that, as promising as the next election looks for his party, it might still all turn out wrong.

“Election Day will either prove to me I have PTSD or show I’ve been living déjà vu,” Ferguson said. “I just don’t know which yet.”

Ferguson is one of many Democrats who felt the string of unexpected defeat in 2016 and are now closely — and nervously — watching the current election near its end, wondering if history will repeat itself. This year, instead of trying to win the presidency, Democrats have placed an onus on trying to gain 23 House seats and win a majority.

The anxiety isn’t universal, with many party leaders professing confidently and repeatedly that this year really is different.

But even some of them acknowledge the similarities between the current and previous election: Trump is unpopular and beset by scandal, Democrats hold leads in the polls, and some Republicans are openly pessimistic.

FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 76.9 percent chance of winning the House one month before Election Day. Their odds for Clinton’s victory two years ago? 71.4 percent.

The abundance of optimism brings back queasy memories for Jesse Lehrich, who worked on the Clinton campaign and remembers watching the returns come in from the Javits Center in New York.

“I was getting texts after the result was clear – including even from some political reporters and operatives – texting me, you know, ‘Are you guys starting to get nervous?’ or ‘What’s her most likely path?’” he said. “I was like, ‘What do you mean, starting to get nervous? What path? They just called Wisconsin. We lost.’”

“People were so slow to process that reality because they just hadn’t considered the possibility that Donald Trump was going to be the next president,” he continued.

Lehrich said he sees similarities between 2016 and 2018. But he said he thought Democrats were cognizant of the parallels and determined not to let up a month before the election, as many voters might have two years ago.

Other Democratic leaders aren’t so sure. Asked if he thought his party was overconfident, Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton responded flatly, “Yes.”

Democrats could win a lot of House seats, he said, or could still fall short of capturing a majority.

“The point is that we’ve got to realize that this not just some unstoppable blue wave but rather a lot of tough races that will be hard-fought victories,” Moulton said.

If Democrats are universally nervous about anything after 2016, it’s polling. The polls weren’t actually as favorable to Clinton and the Democrats as some remember, something 538’s Nate Silver and some other journalists pointed out at the time.

But Clinton’s decision not to campaign in a state she’d lose, Wisconsin, and the failure of pollsters everywhere to miss a wave of Trump supporters in red areas are mistakes Democrats are still grappling with today.

“Clearly last cycle, polling was off,” Ben Ray Lujan, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told reporters last month. “There were a lot of predictions that were made last cycle that didn’t come to fruition.”

Lujan emphasized in particular how pollsters missed the rural vote, calling it a “devastating mistake.” He said the DCCC has taken deliberate steps since 2016 to get it right this time around, but underscored a congressional majority still required a tooth-and-nail fight.

“So I’m confident with the team that’s been assembled, but I’m definitely cognizant of the fact we need to understand these models and understand the data for what it is,” he said.

One Democratic pollster said the data he’s seen makes plain that the party is favored to win a majority — but that it’s still not a sure thing. He said even now it’s unclear if the political environment will create an electoral tsunami, or merely a good year where Democrats might still fall short of a House majority.

“We’ve all learned a lesson from 2016 that there are multiple possibilities and outcomes,” said the pollster, granted anonymity to discuss polling data one month before the election. “And if you haven’t learned that lesson, shame on you. That 20 percent outcome can happen. That 30 percent outcome can happen.”

This year, Democrats have history on their side: The incumbent president’s party historically struggles during midterm elections. That wasn’t the case in 2016, when Democrats were trying to win the presidency for three consecutive terms for the first time in their history since Franklin Delano Roosevelt (The GOP accomplished the feat only once in the same period, with Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush.)

Some Democratic leaders say the reality of Trump’s presidency — unlike its hypothetical state in 2016 — changes the dynamic entirely.

“Democratic energy is at nuclear levels,” said Steve Israel, a former DCCC chairman. “Democrats would crawl over broken glass to vote in this election.”

Israel said he still has concerns about November (political operatives always have concerns about the upcoming election). But he waves away the notion that the party might fall short of a House majority.

“Most Democrats and a heck of a lot of Republicans I speak to believe that Democrats will have the majority,” he said. “The real question is, by how much?”

Ferguson is, of course, of two minds: He thinks the push to repeal the Affordable Care Act and the day-to-day reality of Trump’s presidency fundamentally changes how voters will see this election.

But he’s also gun-shy about what could change in the next month, after the multitude of surprises that occurred during the last month of the 2016 race, whether the “Access Hollywood” recording or then-FBI Director James Comey’s announcement that the investigation into Clinton’s emails was re-opened.

Many Republicans argue the 2018 election has already seen its October surprise, with the confirmation fight over Brett Kavanaugh finally motivating conservative voters to vote.

“I don’t know what the October surprises will be,” Ferguson said. “But we make a mistake if we assume that what we’re seeing today is what we’ll see for the entire month. We lived through it two years ago.”

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